Australia’s car market in November 2025 — an SME lens on stock, tech and value

1) November snapshot

By November 2025, the market feels strangely normal again. Delivery times are mostly back to earth, choice on dealer lots is visible, and the tug-of-war between margin and volume is out in the open. It’s still uneven — some nameplates remain tight, others are in run-out with banners unthinkable two years ago — but the overall tempo is calmer.

For small and medium businesses, that normality is useful. It brings back the ability to compare actual vehicles in real time, not on paper. It softens the forced “take it or leave it” conversations that defined the post-pandemic bubble. And it gives you back an older skill: buying well by turning up at the right moment with the right spec.

2) Demand and supply — where leverage lives

Fleet renewals deferred in 2023–24 are now trickling through. Retail demand cooled over winter and steadied into spring. Supply varies by origin: Japanese and Korean brands have smoothed flow; Chinese brands have leaned into volume; European supply is still model-dependent. Dealers with stock to clear are negotiating again — often in accessories, servicing and delivery commitments rather than headline drive-away alone.

Leverage appears wherever there’s visible metal on forecourts. That’s especially true for mid-spec SUVs, some utes below the halo trim, and pre-NVES-friendly inventory that landed in bulk. On the flip side, niche variants and hero models still trade on scarcity. If you’re flexible on colour and trim, you can nudge a deal materially without compromising fit-for-purpose.

3) Brand mix and country of origin

The share story through 2025 is simple: China moved from curiosity to core supplier in several segments, particularly price-led EVs and value-loaded SUVs; Japan remains the hybrid and utility benchmark; Korea continues to punch above its weight on spec and warranty; Europe plays the premium and enthusiast cards. None of that is ideological — it’s about who can deliver the right spec at the right price now.

The quiet subplot is dealer network maturity. Some newer entrants have grown service coverage quickly; others are still consolidating. For SMEs outside capitals, that network strength matters more than a clever launch price. Downtime is the expensive line item nobody sees on handover day.

4) Utes, vans and light trucks — the workhorse view

Utes remain the backbone of Australian small business — consistent with 2024’s dominance — and the top sellers still anchor the segment. Mid-tier variants have softened as buyers cross-shop aggressively. Payload and towing are table stakes; cabin ergonomics and ADAS calibration are the new separator, particularly for staff who clock big kilometres.

Vans tell a similar story: stock is finally visible, diesel dominates mixed-duty roles, and electric vans are inching forward for fixed, short-haul work with depot charging. Light trucks and cab-chassis respond to construction and infrastructure cycles; churn is steady rather than hot. For builds (trays, service bodies), delivery certainty often beats a marginal spec win on paper.

5) Hybrids, EVs and PHEVs — the practical split

Hybrids (HEV) cemented themselves as the pragmatic middle ground in 2025. They require almost no behaviour change, slash stop-start fuel, and keep resale sturdy. For sales teams and metro service roles, hybrids are often the default pick when you run TCO honestly.

Battery EVs (BEV) remain a duty-cycle question. They’re excellent on fixed urban routes with depot charging and predictable kilometres. They’re less convincing for ad-hoc regional work unless you’ve piloted the route and timing. Value improved as sharper-priced models arrived, but charging control is still the swing factor.

PHEVs sit between worlds. Driven and charged as intended, they shine; driven like a petrol car, they disappoint. 2025 saw a cull of half-baked models and a few serious replacements. For SMEs with staff who reliably plug in, PHEV can be a neat bridge — just be strict on usage policy. Context: by October 2025, market wraps showed hybrids gaining share while BEV share held roughly steady month-to-month; PHEVs ticked along as model ranges reshuffled.

6) Pricing, incentives and NVES dynamics

With NVES live in 2025, manufacturers are juggling fleet-average targets, credits and penalties. NVES is one factor influencing supply, trim availability and import timing — the public sometimes sees this as sudden “deals” on certain variants or pushy messaging around lower-emission stock. That’s not a conspiracy; it’s a spreadsheet. When credits matter, delivery timing and trim availability do too. An unlikely spec can go cheap while another stays stubborn.

Earlier FBT settings also left fingerprints on fleet choices. The incentive frenzy cooled into a new normal: fewer blanket giveaways, more targeted levers. The SME takeaway is to price the vehicle you can actually get in November, not the model-year rumour. Where NVES or supply creates over-stock, negotiate delivery certainty and accessory inclusion as part of the ticket.

7) Technology and ADAS — the safety dividend

Active safety has moved from brochure fluff to real fatigue management. Modern ADAS suites combine Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB), lane-centering/keeping, adaptive cruise and blind-spot monitoring that actually work together. Calibration quality varies by brand; some systems feel natural, others nag. On long regional runs, the better suites shrink driver load meaningfully.

Connectivity matters too. Telematics, over-the-air updates and app-level controls are becoming standard. Treat vehicles like rolling laptops: decide what data you collect, who sees it, and how updates are managed under your IT policy. That discipline prevents a messy stack of passwords and “who owns the data?” arguments later.

8) Depreciation and resale — what’s holding, what isn’t

Resale settled through 2025. The pandemic-era scarcity premiums washed out, then values found a sensible floor. Hybrids are holding up particularly well; some early-spec EVs softened as newer tech leapfrogged range and charging speed. Utilities with clean service histories remain easy to move; niche colours and oddball trims don’t. For vans, mid-spec with sensible options still sells best to the next operator.

Align term and residual with real replacement behaviour. If you typically churn at four years, don’t pretend you’re a six-year owner. Undershoot the balloon/residual a touch and you’ll be on the right side of market shifts instead of chasing them.

9) Risks for SMEs — supply, software and service

Supply risk: it hasn’t vanished. A port delay or recall can still freeze a model for weeks. Hedge by avoiding single-model dependence in critical roles. Software risk: treat firmware updates like any other device update — scheduled and documented. Service risk: if you’re outside metro areas, interrogate the dealer and parts network before you sign. A cheap buy that’s three hours from a workshop is an expensive buy.

10) Equipment finance note for November 2025

2025 didn’t crown a single “best” structure. Chattel mortgage keeps ownership simple with interest deductibility and (if registered) an upfront GST credit on the asset; finance lease smooths cashflow with rentals in advance and GST on each rental; hire purchase sits nearby with different title/GST timing. For a deeper walk-through, see our equipment finance guide, model repayments with the equipment finance calculator, or compare lenders via our equipment finance broker page.

Compliance: General information only. Outcomes vary by entity, usage and current legislation. Final pricing and approval require a full lender assessment.